With the 2020 Presidential Election completed and Joe Biden elected as the United States’ 46th President, strategists of the Democratic Party must now shift their focus toward defending this victory in 2024. We will be assessing the outlook for the Democratic Party going forward by examining changes in voting behavior from 2016 to 2020 in five key counties: Milwaukee County (WI), Maricopa County (AZ), Wayne County (MI), Philadelphia County (PA), and Fulton County (GA). These counties were chosen for two reasons. First, they are all in states President-Elect Biden flipped from President Trump. Secondly, while they are all urban counties, together represent all regions of America. We will be analyzing changes in voter turnout, votes for Republicans or Democrats, margins of victory, and percentage point victory. Along with that, these changes and the overall behavior of voters from these counties will be compared to the voting behavior of their counties’ members of the House of Representatives, through code from Kaggle. This will help us quantify any liberal shift, as pundits for years have talked about the “Blue Wave.”
Davidson, Jake; Chun, Jon; and Elkins, Katherine, "Quantifying the Rising “Blue Wave”: The Five Metro Areas that Determined the 2020 U.S. Presidential Election" (2020). IPHS 200: Programming Humanity. Paper 24.
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