An option for anticipating Fed action
Options contracts on federal funds futures, a new financial instrument introduced earlier this year, can be analyzed to gauge public expectations of future Fed actions. The real bonus is that they can detect differences of opinion when markets see more than two possible outcomes for an FOMC meeting as well as the likelihood associated with each.
"An Option for Anticipating Fed Action" with John B. Carlson and Erkin Sahinoz, Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, Ohio, September 2003 pp. 1-4.